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SH 0 0޽h ? ̙33 x0(  xH x 0޽h ? ̙33   $(  r  S :,p  r  S ;, `    H  0޽h ? f33  @ (  r  S      n  <ȸ ?P   Three cheers for the death of the journal Dr Peter Singer March 2001 XG|( K~,~~H  0޽h ? f33   PM(  r  S ϸ       <Ҹ ? /New search methods New delivery methods Large subscription price hikes Declining numbers of subscriptions Increasing research output = Pay as you go | 2(2(2~ ~ ~H  0޽h ? f33  `8(  x  c $f       <h ?p  |Infotrieve 2001 $1.6 Billion Outsell 2003 Ingenta Institute 2001 $2.4 Billion Ingenta Institute 2000 P} 2(~ ~/~~$ nH  0޽h ? f33*  pj(  r  S h       <d ?p J (2   < ?  :Separates Document delivery Interlibrary Loan Pay per view8  21 2 ~1~H  0޽h ? f33V  (  x  c $       C AC:\Documents and Settings\ccscw\Desktop\Speaking engagements\ASA\monser02.gif2H  0޽h ? f33  ^V(  r  S <     <  < ?' Have you ever used pay per view? 36% respondents had ever used ppv eJust Dec 2002 Do you purchase articles that you do not subscribe to? 25% said that they used pay per view Ingenta user survey Summer 2003 C(2(2^(2(2(2C~~]~~~,? H  0޽h ? f33  6(  r  S T       HA ? ?` x H  0޽h ? f33  !(  x  c $Q       HA ? ?P   <R ?:& q) Subscriber downloads up 43% / PPV up 7% ,*)~H  0޽h ? f33P  (  x  c $U       <@_ ?  lSubscriptions per title: Aug 02 to May 03  33% increase Pay as you go per title: Aug 02 to May 03  3% increaseh ~ ~~~H  0޽h ? f33  D<(  r  S h       <j ?@ J (2 d  <`i ?@( 250 publisher partners e-journal platform access control 40 Publisher Websites Access Science OECD World Bank Emerald Ingenta group includes Bids, Heron, PCG 4~~H  0޽h ? f33  tl(  r  S u     R  <{ ?pa *The subscription is alive and well & ..But then so is the ppv sale And there are further pressures looming End of the big deal Usage pricing Oai tk 2' 2 2(2k~'~~$9QH  0޽h ? f33 0 U(  X  C 0     S @ 00 @   WBut now I would like to turn to analysis gleaned from patterns of usage on Ingenta. This graph shows ppv percentage difference for the equivalent month of the previous year. You can see that in Sept Oct and November of 2002 there was a large increase in ppv over the equivalent months in 2001. I will be interested to see the pattern this year as we go into the busy last quarter. Since then we have been seeing in most months apart from those of March and June a decline in ppv usage over the previous year. >eH  0޽h ? ̙33 0 n(  X  C 0     S `=/00 @   p"I also measured the activity against the number of journals on the Ingenta site. And again the data seems to confirm that the subscription is alive and well. We have seen libraries register 33% more subscriptions with us but pay per view per title has increased at an eleventh of that pace. What should we make of all this subscription activity in the light of the contention that the article economy is to replace the journal and the subscription is dead. Well we ought to look at our sources and provide some caveats first& .. 2$%JJJ%JJJH  0޽h ? ̙33  0   X (  X  C 0      S TŒ00 @   Z F I thought that this might be amusing to start with here in this room full of journal publishers and subscription agents. At the ALPSP seminar  Is there life after e prints Dr Peter Singer heralded indeed delighted in what he saw as the end of the journal looming. The journal is not just a collection of articles banded and branded together it is also a subscribed for product paid for in advance whereby you get the rough with the smooth; not only material of interest but also a whole load of other stuff which may be completely irrelevant. In that way it is its own  big deal if you like. My background is in the grubby world of paperback publishing which has a different business model. In trade publishing the publisher shells out a great deal in an advance in the hope that an author may write something good; in academic journal publishing journal subscriptions are paid in advance in the hope something good may be published. But is the journal model by which I mean both it structure and financial model because both are inextricably linked sustainable because that it what we are really talking about here. It has a long and I think honourable history but can it survive.H  0޽h ? ̙33$  0 @t(  X  C 0     S ď 00 @   vAnd the article economy did indeed seem to be growing. Two studies which were undertaken in 2001 suggested that this article economy was worth some billions of dollars worldwide. Tenopir and King suggest the in 1985 90 million articles were distributed as separates. The one commissioned from Outsell on behalf of Infotrieve surveyed corporate, academic librarians and end users shows a growing demand for electronic delivery of journal articles using the Pay-Per-View model. And I quote Increases in print journal subscription prices, advances in online document delivery technology, and the growing sophistication of users and librarians account for this shift in emphasis toward document delivery, particularly electronic delivery. The survey sets the size of the Article Economy at $1.6 billion.  They go on to say that The study points to a significant shift in spending away from subscription-based access toward other means of obtaining articles. Projections show a 4.7% decline in future spending on subscriptions, with document delivery picking up most of the shift in spending. Electronic delivery of articles is expected to grow by 60% in the coming year. Both the corporate and the academic library markets surveyed project an increase in spending on document delivery, including inter-library loan, with demand driven by both librarians and end-users. Clearly the feeling is that this is a substantial market which initially acted as something of a safety valve for non subscribers to get hold of relevant research  to pick up the pieces. But one which during the 1990s was becoming the main method of sourcing material; or was it? The Ingenta study attempted to separate electronic pay per view from both Interlibrary loan and document delivery and define the terms and indeed concluded that there was a happy coexistance between the article economy and subscriptions. It too noted the competitive pressures on the subscription model. One interesting feature was that subscribers appear to buy more documents than non subscribers. There is a significant overlap averaging 15% between document requests and subscriptions held by organisations. "z n%JJJ>  FH  0޽h ? ̙33  0 LD(  X  C 0   D  S 8b/00 @   So that s alright then; Subscription agents and publishers however should not think that they are out of the woods. The current debate, I think raging is perhaps too strong a word, but anyway being conducted suggests that after the blip caused by  big deals whereby increased ranges of content were made available are coming to an end. Library selectors are in a position to look at their usage and fine tune their subscriptions. Deals are there to be done on usage. In the wider web world the FT has now gone to a subscriber model, realising that it can t live by advertising alone. Closer to home the BMJ is no longer free and perhaps most interesting is the move by OUP to move their monographs from a purchase model to a subscription model. The Oxford Scholarship Online which goes live at the end of the year, and was build by us, will be an interesting test. H  0޽h ? ̙33D   0   0 (  X  C 0      S ܒ00 @   N Current thinking suggests that pressures on journals make it and its business model doomed. Libraries in the print era, given the length of time it took to get hold of material unless ordered in advance subscribed on a  just in case basis. Renewals often with high prices went through often unquestioned on the selection committee nod. But with research output growing at up to 4% per annum and prices rising at a faster pace than that of the budgets of libraries the pressure was building for a way to access material which the library could not afford to stock. The increasing sophistication of users, which now seems to mean being able to search on Google, has also meant that having to receive all the articles you don t need with the one that you do, the journal big deal, is no longer necessary. You can search for relevant pieces of information or be directed straight to the article. Why bother to have all this other stuff you don t need and if you don t need it and your budget is tight why on earth have to pay for it. And at the same time as I begin to question the need to receive irrelevant information the price of my subscription has shot up. All these forces it is thought seemed to point the end of subscription. And therefore enter the saviour of research pay as you go and the article economly.,H  0޽h ? ̙33  0 NF`(  X  C 0   F  S  00 @   tSo everything is therefore moving inexorably towards the end of the journal and its subscription or is it? The ARL chart which I am sure is well known shows the rise in price and the attendant reduction in the number of titles to which and organisation subscribes. But wait a moment there are some blips for the first time since 1986 It is noteworthy that the decline in the unit cost documented last year has been followed this year by the number of serial subscriptions increasing above 1986 levels for the first time since 1992. This is most likely due to increased availability of electronic subscriptions and consortial arrangements. The ARL purchased 15% more subscriptions in 2002, or a median of 17,676 subscriptions. They also slightly increased the number of monographs purchased to 30,752, although the number is still less than 1986 levels. To meet the demands of increasing serial prices during the last decade, libraries shifted expenditures from monographs to serials; Since 1986, the average annual increase for the serial unit cost has been 7.7%, and for the monograph unit cost 3.6%. Both are higher than the general inflation trend during the same period, accommodating both print and electronic resources (frequently with some duplication between the two media forms). The response from the publishers was the Big Deal has had a marked effect. But is it sustainable? Pk H  0޽h ? ̙33   0 Pa(  X  C 0     S t 00 @   cYAnd the definitions were: Document Delivery (docdel). Delivery of a research article from a central resource to an end user whereby the latter pays for both the costs of making a copy of the article, for having it delivered by one of a number of alternative means (fax, ARIEL, mail), and also pays a royalty which is passed on by the document delivery house to the publisher which owns the copyright on the article concerned. Such as Infotrieve who commissioned the study, BLDSC and so on. Inter Library Loan (ILL). Similar to document delivery, but is typically a decentralised service whereby librarians agree to share their holdings of journals so that those libraries which do not have a subscription to a title can still get access to the article. In this case the article is supplied under a legal framework whereby the article is provided under the fair use or fair dealing principles of national Copyright Laws. Pay per view: Similar to traditional document delivery, the rise of e-docdel is predicated on the efficiencies which come from downloading an article from an electronic file, rather than using staff and library facilties to service photocopy requests. The cost advantages of the former are spectacular, and many publishers, and their agents, are offering pay-per-view access to all their online articles. Pay-per-view in this case will include a small processing charge but also a larger royalty fee which the publisher sets. It is important to distinguish between these separates because the data collected from recent activity by users of Ingenta can only offer information on ppv activity rZ5 v B      t. ( 4 H  0޽h ? ̙33  0   p (  X  C 0     S 8 00 @   But let s now look at PPV itself and who is doing it? Well not Academics for a start, at least not out of their own pocket. The Report of the e-Journal User Study by the Institute of the future for Stanford said that only  36% had ever used ppv and only one third of these found it useful . Indeed half of those answering suggested that they took out journal or society membership. The Ingenta user survey was conducted this summer and of the respondents 25% said that they had used ppv. Of these 28% found the service essential, 21% valuable, 22% somewhat valuable, 24% not valuable and 5% who didn t seem to know that it existed. Personal subscriptions were a major casualty of recent decades as individuals more readily claimed subscriptions from their institution. Ppv would seem to be suffering the same fate as Academics show no sign of changing their tightfistedness and whilst this remains so perhaps we could infer that the article economy will never make it in the research world.>H  0޽h ? ̙33 0 >(  X  C 0     S  00 @   @ Now if we map subscriber downloads for the same period we can see that there has been significant growth in subscriber download traffic. Indeed the overall figures suggest that subscriber downloads have grown at 43% over the period compared with 7% increase in ppv. H  0޽h ? ̙33` 0  (  X  C 0     S T/00 @   XThe data shown comes from an analysis of activity across 250 publishers partners whose journals are available via our e journal platform. Not all of these however offer ppv, so it could be argued that my increases in subscription download and ppv download per journal might be questioned. One of the main features of the Ingenta site for the end user is the collection and management of the subscription information for these publishers To balance that some, admittedly only very few, only offer ppv. The figures may also be slightly skewed by the very heavy traffic experienced by the Emerald site. >GfH  0޽h ? ̙33 0 F(  X  C 0     S 00 @   H4Good Afternoon And thank you for the introduction. 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